POTC Value play

[jcambert]

Ok, Wsex just poster their number at $36 mil. Considering this, I just bet the OVER $36mil at Intertops at +170. If nothing else, there is value in that play.

Also, Boxofficereport has his early prediction up and he is predicting $40mil.

I don't necessarily agree with that, but, considering how cold I am, that doesn't really matter. Either way, it's all about the value.

JP

 

[jcambert]

Don't know if I'm trying to convince myself that this film is going to go over $36 or if this is actually a good sign, but, check out moviefone.com and you will see that here we are, Monday, a full two days before the film opening and POTC is already number 1 on their most requested list. I remember that the Hulk and T3 weren't number 1 until the day of their opening. Very interesting.

JP

 

[Oren1]

Good luck, the value's gone and now the under is +110, so I took that. It's 37.5 now so maybe we can both still win.

It's looking good for you here, since people have been hitting the over and it seems like whoever has been hammering WSEX's box office lines are pretty sharp.

 

[jcambert]

Yeah. There is certainly the opportunity for a middle. I'll wait, however. Maybe it will move closer to $40.

You can still get the OVER $36 at +160. Still great value. Don't necesarily think it has any better shot of coming in than the UNDER, but, at those odds, the true percentage would only need to be 38%.

Cool.

JP

 

[Oren1]

I'm seeing over 37.5 -130 at WSEX.

 

[Oren1]

ah at Intertops, n/m

 

[jcambert]

No, actually, you are right. The value at Intertops is slowly leaving as well. They have adjusted their lines. It's now OVER 38 and it's at only +130. Looks like I might have hit it at just the right time.

JP

 

[Oren1]

yeah, it's usually best to get in as early as possible there, although the under 45 ended up being +440 near closing last week.

 

[Oren1]

I'm taking 30 to 37.9 +150.

 

[Gillian]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Oren1:
yeah, it's usually best to get in as early as possible there, although the under 45 ended up being +440 near closing last week.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Really, holy shit. What was everyone betting on that the under 45 was so high. Shoot, I missed out big time.

Gil

 

[GoBlue]

wtf - I wait to get feedback from you guys on POTC, and not only does intertops change the line, now they've removed it entirely (as of 3:00 EST)

 

[Oren1]

I don't know what their deal is this week, they didn't even put up a League line, which is unusual. Gil, maybe they were hitting your over 70 million VAL-U play, dog! hahah

J/K

 

[wtf]

played the over 36 as well, +160 at the 'Tops

no lines from Oly yet

 

[Oren1]

they were pretty late with their 5-day lines last week, and like I said, they got killed. Lucky for them they have somewhat low maximum bets, compared to WSex anyways.

 

[Gillian]

looks like there are only 2 sportsbooks with Box Office lines now... Wsex and Intertops.

Shit, we keep winning, and soon there will be none.

Maybe we should all lose on purpose on week for they don't take off on us. Maybe I'll drop a hundred on Intertops on purpose.

 

[Oren1]

yeah, Gil, they haven't put up their odd/even prop for Pirates up yet, but I'm feeling strongly about the odd here, it's due, after last week's 3 time even run! Take the odd, it's bound to lose, that way they won't puss out on us next week.

 

[Oren1]

League is up. I'm going to wait until the next buzz index update. It's not opening until Friday.

 

[Gillian]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Oren1:
yeah, Gil, they haven't put up their odd/even prop for Pirates up yet, but I'm feeling strongly about the odd here, it's due, after last week's 3 time even run! Take the odd, it's bound to lose, that way they won't puss out on us next week.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

bend the fukk over boy...

Whose the guy that won last weekend... you do it you bastard!!!! lol.

 

[Oren1]

**** that shit! I'm taking the odd.

 

[Gillian]

Hey, no fair... you get better odds than what I got last weekend. It's at -115.

I'm gonna take even... just to go against you.

May the best man win... or i guess in this case... the luckiest. From now on, instead of blowing $20 on the slot machines every weekend... I'm gonna put it on this.

cheers!!!